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11/18/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No member of the New York Jets ever said it, but Thursday night's contest at the New England Patriots was a veritable referendum on the team's offseason moves.
If a Jets team that had brought in Brett Favre to lead the passing game, found him a blossoming over-the-middle tight end talent in Dustin Keller, signed two established offensive line talents in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, traded for nose tackle Kris Jenkins to control the opposing run and a legitimate outside pass rusher in Calvin Pace still couldn't beat the now-depleted New England Patriots and seize first place in the AFC East, then lots of NFL observers would have taken to calling those moves pointless.
That would have been overstating things, of course, just as calling the Jets the new kings of the AFC East hill is an exaggeration, even in the wake of their 34-31 overtime triumph at New England.
The Jets still would have been part of the playoff picture even if the Patriots had completed their comeback from a 24-6 deficit by beating Gang Green, just as Eric Mangini's squad still has a great deal of work to do to fend off New England (6-4) and Miami (6-4) over the final six weeks of the season.
But, let there be no question that the Jets' win over the hated Patriots was a psychological mountain successfully scaled, and at least for the moment, no one will be saying New York shopped unwisely during the late winter and early spring of 2008.
Favre has taken some heat this season for his mistakes and an occasional lack of big plays, but neither problem was on display against the Patriots.
No. 4 completed 26-of-33 passes for 258 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in the loss, coolly leading the Jets down the field in the overtime session to get Jay Feely in position for the game-winning 34-yard field goal.
Keller, the rookie out of Purdue who looks to be the capable pass-catching tight end the team has long lacked, was Favre's favorite target with eight grabs for 87 yards on the night.
Faneca and Woody were part of a group that allowed the Jets to churn out 140 ground yards, including 104 on 30 carries with a touchdown for Thomas Jones.
Defensively, the Pro Bowl-worthy Jenkins had three tackles, a sack, and helped limit New England's running backs to 63 yards on 17 carries (3.7 per rush), and Pace ranked second on the team with seven tackles on the night.
Yes, the secondary still has some work to do after allowing Matt Cassel to throw for a career-high 400 yards, and the club must learn to keep its foot on the gas when holding a big lead, but let's remember that this team was 2-8 at this point last year, and there are strides still to be made.
Thursday's win was more evidence that the strides have been gallops, as opposed to baby steps.
"What has pleased me and what I'm continuing to look for is complementary football, and all three phases being able to contribute to the success that week," said Mangini on Monday. "(In) each phase understanding what they have to get done in the game in order to win the game and how they have to play it in order to help the other phases be successful - complete football, not having drop-offs late in the game, being able to deal with whatever adversity comes throughout the course of the game. Sometimes you're going to be up, sometimes you're going to be behind, sometimes it's going to be tied. There's going to be a lot of different challenges that you face, you see those, you deal with them, and you move on. I've been pleased with that, too."
BILLS: What a difference a month makes.
It was on October 19th that the Buffalo Bills moved to 5-1 and into control of the AFC East with an impressive 23-14 home victory over the San Diego Chargers.
Reporters were digging out those notes about 5-1 teams and their usual fate as playoff entries, quarterback Trent Edwards looked like he would need to make reservations for that Pro Bowl trip to Hawaii, and talk was rife of head coach Dick Jauron's imminent signing of a contract extension.
One month later, the Bills are just another middling 5-5 team, Edwards isn't even a cinch to keep his job until the end of the year, and, after Monday night's galling 29-27 home loss to the Cleveland Browns, Jauron does not rate high on the list of Bills fans' favorite luminaries.
Jauron didn't throw those three first-quarter interceptions, that was Edwards (16-of-26, 148 yards, 1 TD), but his conservative approach in the final seconds, with the Bills trying to get into position for a game-winning field goal try, has led to some second-guessing.
With the ball at the Browns 34-yard-line, the Bills opted for three straight inside running plays instead of throwing the ball to get kicker Rian Lindell a few yards closer on a crisp night at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The usually automatic Lindell missed his 47-yard field goal try wide right to send Buffalo to a fourth straight loss, the Bills' first four-game losing skid since it lost five in a row in 2005.
"I just missed my line," said Lindell of the miss. "I hit a good ball. I had a good approach. It just kept going straight right. I've got to make that. It's ridiculous."
The defeat dropped Buffalo alone into last place in the AFC East, including 0-4 in the division.
DOLPHINS: The Miami Dolphins' last two wins, narrow affairs over the struggling Seattle Seahawks (21-19) and Oakland Raiders (17-15), will not be judged as having historical importance as time marches on.
The victories have, however, moved the surprising Fins closer to a couple of notable historical benchmarks.
If they don't win another game this year, Miami will have already matched its best-ever turnaround, tying its jump from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in its first year under Nick Saban in 2005. That one seems like a cinch, and the best single-season turnaround in NFL history is also within the sights of Tony Sparano's club.
The 1999 Indianapolis Colts, who finished 13-3 one season after going 3-13, are still the most abrupt worst-to-first story in NFL annals. The Dolphins would need to win out to surpass that mark, and would need to finish 11-5 to match it.
A record like that would be almost certain to get the Dolphins into the postseason for the first time since 2001, and will also keep Miami within range of an AFC East title that absolutely no one predicted the Dolphins would be in the ballpark of prior to the start of the season.
The team can take another major step toward that goal this week, when they try to complete their first home-and-home sweep of the New England Patriots since the 2000 season. The Fins were surprise 38-13 winners at the Patriots in Week 3.
"Every time you win," said defensive end Vonnie Holliday, "you give yourself an opportunity to be on a bigger stage and have a bigger opportunity.
"That's where we are, and while no believed we could be here, we did."
PATRIOTS: As 2008 training camp neared its end, there was speculation that Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel might not even make the 53-man roster.
Cassel had not played particularly well in the preseason, New England had used a third-round Draft choice on San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell in April, and the other QB seen as being on the bubble, holdover Matt Gutierrez, had outplayed Cassel in the summer. There was also a chance Bill Belichick would scour the waiver wire to find a backup to Tom Brady.
But Cassel survived, and now all of that chatter seems like it occurred eons ago. Brady's injury forced the four-year USC backup into his first starting role since high school, and Cassel has responded by keeping the Patriots in the thick of the playoff race.
His tour de force came this past Thursday, when he completed 31-of-50 passes for 400 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, also rushing for 62 yards in the 34-31 overtime near-miss against the Jets.
Cassel was unable to complete the comeback with a win, but he did rally New England back from a deficit of 24-6, and his 16-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss with a second to play in regulation rivaled any of the clutch throws made by Brady during his certain-Hall of Fame career.
Now in the final year of his contract, Cassel's role as the capable understudy could yield him a large monetary result as some team's leading man next season.
"It's definitely a confidence booster," said New England wideout Jabar Gaffney of Cassel's performance on Thursday. "We were down and he brought us all the way back and we had a chance.
"Matt played a hell of a game tonight."
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AFC West: Broncos Impressive on Multiple Fronts >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heading into their game at Atlanta last week, the notion of
the Denver Broncos scoring only 24 points would have likely been met with
jubilation by Falcons fans.
The way Denver had played defense this season, there was gre
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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