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01/19/2012 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It may seem funny, but trainer Don Warren doesn't appear all that enthused with winning a 2011 Eclipse Award. His charge, Acclamation, was voted 2011 champion Older Male thoroughbred.
What's not to like?
"I thought Acclamation had the best chance of winning the Older Male, but I would rather have seen him win the Turf," Warren said. "Older Male's kind of a funny category, because actually the Older Male should be the Horse of the Year. It seems like they go together, but I guess in that case you wouldn't be able to vote for a filly for Horse of the Year, so I guess it's all right."
Havre de Grace was rewarded for her four-year-old season in 2011 with Horse of the Year and Older Female. She became the third straight female to be voted Horse of the Year succeeding Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.
Owned by Bud Johnston, Acclamation was being considered for last year's Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in either the Classic or the Turf. His last start of the year was a victory in the Clement L Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita on October 2.
The award-winning horse was turned out at the owner's farm near Fresno, to get ready for a 2012 campaign leading to the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita.
"This is by far the best achievement and the best year we've had," Warren continued, "and especially since Acclamation is a Cal-bred. Acclamation is with me at Santa Anita and he's going to the track every morning, just jogging though. It will be a long, slow process (until he resumes racing). I don't think you'll see him at Santa Anita this meet."
Acclamation won the Pacific Classic along with the Hirsch Turf Championship last year. He also won the Jim Murray, Charlie Whittingham and Eddie Read on the turf. The versatile runner has earned better than $1.6 million in 28 career starts with nine victories.
<< Indians P Carmona arrested for double identity
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was arrested
Thursday in his native Dominican Republic on charges of double identity.
Maximo Baez Aybar, a spokesman for the Dominican National Police, said
through
<< Jacksonville State to play Arkansas, Florida
Jacksonville, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jacksonville State's Jack Crowe still
keeps his ties to the SEC.
The dean of Ohio Valley Conference head football coaches will lead his
Gamecocks program into not one, but two games against SEC opponents i
<< Valencia signs Argentine Banega to extension
Valencia, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Valencia has signed Argentine midfielder
Ever Banega to a contract extension through June 2015.
Banega, 23, joined Valencia in 2008 from Boca Juniors and has played 87 games
with the Spanish side. Bane
<< Inter's Forlan picks up new injury
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan forward Diego Forlan has suffered
strained right hip flexor, and will be sidelined for an unknown period.
The Uruguayan international joined Inter from Atletico Madrid last summer, but
the 32-year
Giants' Manning returns to practice >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning
was a full participant in practice on Thursday after leaving Wednesday's
practice with a stomach illness.
"I'm 100 percent. I had a full practice today,
AC Milan's Pato to miss 3-4 weeks >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan striker Alexandre Pato is expected to
miss three to four weeks with a thigh injury sustained Wednesday in the Coppa
Italia win over Novara.
Pato's extra-time goal helped Milan defeat Novara, 2-1, but
Report: Saints hire Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator >>
Metairie, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Orleans Saints have decided on Steve
Spagnuolo as their next defensive coordinator, according to a report by FOX's
Jay Glazer.
Spagnuolo spent the last three seasons as the head coach of the St
Toms, Villegas share lead in California >>
La Quinta, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Toms and Camilo Villegas carded
matching rounds of nine-under 63 Thursday to share the first-round lead at the
Humana Challenge.
The leaders played two different courses on Thursday. Toms was
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
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