Twins blast Royals, expand lead in AL Central

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Francisco Liriano pitched seven solid innings and Delmon Young drove in four runs, as the Minnesota Twins cruised to a 10-3 win over the Kansas City Royals in the middle contest of a three-game series.

Liriano (13-7), who remained unbeaten in 10 starts since the All-Star break, yielded two runs on seven hits with four strikeouts for the Twins, who have won five straight and increased their lead atop the AL Central to 4 1/2 games over the White Sox. Chicago lost to Detroit earlier Tuesday. J.J. Hardy delivered three RBI while Jim Thome homered and scored three runs in the victory.

Josh Fields homered for the Royals, who have lost five of their last six overall.

Brian Bannister (7-12) started on the hill for KC and suffered the loss after he allowed seven runs on eight hits with two walks over 2 2/3 innings.

After Hardy's sacrifice fly in the second gave the Twins an early lead, they exploded for six runs in the third. Denard Span began the decisive bottom of the third with a single and stole second base before two straight outs ensued. Jason Kubel kept the inning alive with an RBI single before another base hit by Michael Cuddyer and a walk issued to Thome loaded the bases.

Young then stepped to the plate and ripped a two-run single to left field. Both Young and Thome advanced one base when Bannister uncorked a wild pitch and Hardy came through with the second two-run single of the inning. Matt Tolbert's triple brought home Hardy and capped the uprising.

Fields' two-out solo blast in the fourth got the Royals on the scoreboard.

In the bottom of the fourth, Young's two-run double gave the Twins a 9-1 advantage. Orlando Hudson and Mauer both singled and came home on the hit by Young, his 96th and 97th RBI of the season.

KC's other run came in the fifth when a Liriano wild pitch allowed Jai Miller to cross the plate.

Thome's 22nd home run of the season and 586th of his career, a solo shot to right field, increased the cushion to 10-2.

Gregor Blanco's RBI single in the top of the ninth capped the scoring.

Game Notes

Liriano has not lost at home since June 28 and improved to 7-3 at home this season...Minnesota has won 10 of its last 12 games overall...The Twins are now 47-23 at home in 2010...This was Bannister's first start since he returned from the DL (shoulder tendinitis)...It was Fields' first homer of the year...Royals first baseman Billy Butler left the game after being hit in the hand by a ground ball in the third inning.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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